Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Fallout for NATO in Georgia

As Georgian and Russian military leaders toss recriminations back and forth regarding who first violated the French-brokered ceasefire, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has taken a page from Karzai and Musharraf's book and petulantly blamed his imperial backers for his own misfortune. Saakashvili told CNN that Western leaders had "failed to analyze Russia's intentions" before it invaded Georgia and "are partly to blame" for the current situation. He continued ""The response has not been adequate. Not only those people who are committing all those atrocities are responsible, but those who don't react to that, I think they also share responsibility." This little display of snotty sub imperial whining has made me wonder what the fallout for NATO is going to be here. As StratFor argues, this war did not shift geopolitical relations; rather, it revealed the already established shift of US impotence and Russian ambitions. Given this, I wonder to what degree Saakashvili will try to turn this against his former allies. It seems he is quite interested in using the Americans' current situation to his advantage as much as possible, but how much room does he really have? DEBKAfile is promising an analysis of "Why Saakashvili stirred the Pot" that I'm very much looking forward to, as the future of the conflict in the Caucuses right now seems very unclear (at least to me).